Report Name:Japan Publishes Draft 6th Strategic Energy Plan

THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF

AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY

Voluntary Report – Voluntary - Public Distribution Date: August 11, 2021

Report Number: JA2021-0113

Report Name: Japan Publishes Draft 6th Strategic Energy Plan

Country: Japan

Post: Tokyo

Report Category: Biofuels, National Plan, Policy and Program Announcements, Climate

Change/Global Warming/Food Security, Grain and Feed, Wood Products

Prepared By: Daisuke Sasatani

Approved By: Mariya Rakhovskaya

Report Highlights:

This report replaces and corrects the report published on August 11, 2021. The revision contains

corrections to Figures 1 and 2 as the original report did not contain relative percentages represented by

the different energy sources described in those Figures.

On July 21, 2021, Japan’s Agency of Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) published the first public

draft of its 6th Strategic Energy Plan. As Japan looks to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 46 percent

by 2030, compared to 2013, ANRE aims to double the country’s use of renewable energy for electricity

generation from 2019 to 2030. ANRE proposes to significantly revise the 2030 energy mix target

relative to its prior 2030 target published in 2018. The main focus of the Plan is on solar and wind,

rather than biomass. The Plan does not set targets for transport biofuels.

General

On October 26. 2020, during his address at the Extraordinary Diet Session, Japanese Prime Minister

Suga declared that Japan would become carbon neutral by 2050. On April 22, 2021, at the Leader’s

Summit on Climate hosted by the United States, Prime Minister Suga declared that Japan would aim to

reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 46 percent in Japanese fiscal year (JFY: April-March)

2030 from JFY 2013 levels.

Strategic Energy Plan

1

Every 3-4 years, the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) of the Ministry of Economy,

Trade and Industry (METI) releases Japan’s Strategic Energy Plan (SEP). The SEP, first published in

2003, presents the government’s medium to long-term energy outlook. The current 5

th

Strategic Energy

Plan was approved by the Cabinet on July 3, 2018 (for details about the 5

th

SEP, please see Japan

Biofuels Annual). Since October 2020, ANRE’s expert committee has been discussing the 6

th

SEP.

According to ANRE, during the development of a new SEP, ANRE takes into account trends in global

energy markets, environmental considerations and public opinion. Following reviews by an expert

committee and a public comment period, the 6

th

SEP Plan will be finalized, provided Cabinet members

do not object. Upon adoption of the new SEP, METI expects local governments and private sectors,

such as utility companies and refineries, to integrate elements of the Plan into their operational plans.

On July 21, 2021, ANRE released the first draft of the new 6

th

Strategic Energy Plan. To achieve the

Government of Japan’s 46 percent GHG reduction target by JFY 2030, ANRE proposes to reduce the

total primary energy generation to approximately 430 billion liters crude oil equivalent (COE) by JFY

2030 from the JFY 2030 target of 489 billion liters COE in the 5

th

Strategic Energy Plan (Figure 1).

ANRE expects this reduction to occur through decreased demand due to improved energy efficiency and

energy conservation. Several other key changes in JFY 2030 targets from the 5

th

SEP to the draft 6

th

SEP include (details in Figure 1): (i) increase in the use of renewables; (ii) reduction in reliance on

petroleum and coal; and (iii) addition of hydrogen and ammonia to the list of energy sources.

1

The literal translation from Japanese is “Energy Basic Plan,” but the official English translation is Strategic Energy Plan.

Figure 1. Current and Target Primary Energy Production by Major Sources

Note: The JFY 2019 value in the chart does not include recycled heat, which would push Japan’s total JFY 2019 energy

supply to 524 billion liters COE.

1 gigajoule (GJ) = 0.0258 liters COE = 947,817 British thermal units (Btu)

Transportation Biofuels

According to the draft 6

th

SEP, ANRE will continuously monitor international trends and domestic

utilization related to bioethanol and biodiesel use. By 2035, Japan intends to ban new sales of non-

hybrid cars with combustion engines. During the same time frame, Japan aims for vehicles with an

electric propulsion system (e.g., hybrid electric tracks, fuel cell electric vehicles) to account for 20-30

percent of new sales of commercial vehicles weighing less than 8 tons.

In the near future, Japan also aims to commercially introduce sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) along

with adopting International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) guidelines.

Electricity Generation

Compared to the 5

th

SEP, in the draft 6

th

SEP, ANRE aims to reduce the use of fossil fuels and boost the

use of renewables in power generation (Figure 2). In JFY 2019, the latest data available, Japan derived

18 percent of its electricity from renewables. According to the draft 6

th

SEP, the share will increase to

about 36-38 percent by JFY 2030.

[CELLRANGE]

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

JFY 2019 Actual JFY 2030 New

Target Proposal

(6th SEP)

JFY 2030 Current

Target (5th SEP)

Japan Energy Supply

(Unit: Billion Liters Crude Oil Equivalent)

Hydrogen,

Ammonia

Renewables

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Coal

Petroleum

About

430 bil. l

489 bil. l

478 bil. l

Figure 2. Current and Target Distribution of Energy Sources for Electricity in Japan

The renewables targeted for increased energy generation include solar panels, onshore windmills and

offshore windmills (Figure 3). The draft 6

th

SEP maintains the same JFY 2030 target for biomass

utilization as the 5

th

SEP. Under the 5

th

SEP, Japan’s biomass power capacity was expected to reach 6-7

GW (39.4-49.0 billion kWh) by JFY 2030. The new 6

th

Plan proposed to increase the biomass power

capacity to 8 GW (approximately 47.1 billion kWh) by JFY 2030. In addition to specifying targets for

different renewable types, the draft 6

th

SEP also aims to add 20-40 billion kWh from renewables, of yet

to be determined sources (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Comparison of JFY 2030 targets for Renewables for Energy Generation

[CELLRANGE]

0

200

400

600

800

1000

JFY 2019 Actual JFY 2030 Proposed

Target (6th SEP)

JFY 2030 Current

Target (5th SEP)

Electricity Mix (Unit: billion kWh)

Hydrogen,

Ammonia

Renewables

Nuclear

Natural Gas

Coal

Petroleum

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

JFY 2030 Current

Mix (5th SEP)

JFY 2030 Proposed

Target Mix (6th SEP)

Renewable Electricity Mix in FY 2030

(Unit: billion kWh)

Undetermined

Biomass

Hydro

Geothermal

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

Solar

For information about Japan’s climate change targets related to the agricultural, forestry and fisheries

sectors, please see Agriculture and Climate Change in Japan.

Attachments:

No Attachments.