Municipal Law Institute 2014 Symposium
Contracting & Privatization Panel
Michelle Wilde Anderson, UC Berkeley School of Law
THE NEW MINIMAL CITIES
123 YALE L.J. __ (2014) (draft excerpt)
Michelle Wilde Anderson
Abstract
Between 2007 and 2013, twenty-eight urban municipalities declared bankruptcy
or entered a state receivership to manage fiscal insolvency. To cut costs and divert
revenues to debt payments, these cities have taken dramatic austerity measures—an
unwitting experiment with a shrinking public sector in cities hollowed by household
poverty and physical deterioration. Eventually, these cuts raise a question that looms as
large for insolvency law as it does on city streets: Is there a point where the city should
no longer cut public services and sell public assets, even in the face of unmet obligations
to creditors? If so, what is that point?
This Article looks closely at our insolvent cities—their residents, their physical
and social conditions, their debts, their governments. It explores, as a descriptive matter,
local adaptations to fiscal crisis. It surfaces, as a legal matter, the latent question that
mayors, governors, state and local legislatures, bankruptcy judges, and state-appointed
receivers must decide: What share of city revenues can a city preserve for its current
residents? Unlike creditors, who have contracts and legal judgments to quantify a city’s
obligations to them, residents have no monetized claim to draw on city revenues.
Insolvency law itself provides no guidance on this challenging issue—it simply
assumes some level of ongoing spending to preserve “health and welfare,” a concept that
raises more questions than answers. This Article explores residents’ interests, mapping
out heuristics for decisionmakers and the public to use in thinking about essential public
spending in the context of cities at risk of default on debt.
The conversation started here informs two issues beyond insolvency. First is
neighborhood-scale habitability: How low can shared services go before we should
consider a neighborhood uninhabitable? And second: What does urban life require of
public life? Posing this question in terms of cities offers a smaller setting in which to
explore the age-old debate about what we want from the public sector—what taxpayers
expect for themselves, and what they are willing to guarantee for others.
Introduction & Executive Summary
Unable to meet obligations to creditors while also keeping government services in
operation, the City of Detroit entered a state receivership on March 14, 2013 and filed for
bankruptcy on July 18. That makes Detroit the twenty-eighth city to declare municipal
bankruptcy or to enter a receivership for fiscal crisis since late 2008, a window of time that
has seen five of the six largest municipal bankruptcies in American history.
1
In a long-term
transformation of local finance that has accelerated in the recent recession, these cities and
others are engaging in slash-and-burn budgeting to address falling revenues, rising expenses,
and mounting debt. In San Bernardino, the third Californian city to declare bankruptcy in the
recent recession,
2
the City Attorney followed another round of deep cuts to the police
department with solemn advice to residents: “Lock your doors and load your guns.”
3
Such an
announcement would be unsurprising to the residents of Cleveland and East Cleveland in
Ohio, Flint and Inkster in Michigan, and other cities beset by rising crime and police layoffs,
where 911 can rarely dispatch an officer for a call reporting a non-violent crime, such as car
theft, drug dealing, and prostitution. Camden, New Jersey had over 2,100 incidents of
homicide, forcible rape, robbery, or aggravated assault in 2011—an average of roughly one
violent crime every four hours in a city of approximately 77,000 people, only slightly larger
than suburban Palo Alto, California.
4
Yet in January 2011, Camden cut its police force in half
and eliminated its homicide and narcotics units.
5
Where police departments are understaffed, other public services are unstaffed.
Cities in California, Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Ohio and elsewhere have
terminated thirty to fifty percent of their employees. Following Vallejo, California’s
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1
The full list, ranked by amount of debt, includes Detroit, Michigan (filed in 2013); Jefferson
County, Alabama (2011); Orange County, California (1994); Stockton, California (2012); San
Bernardino, California (2012); and Vallejo, California (2008). See Detroit’s Bankruptcy Is the
Nation’s Largest, N.Y. TIMES, July 18, 2013,
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/07/18/us/detroit-bankruptcy-is-the-largest-in-
nation.html; see also, infra, Table 1.
2
The resort town of Mammoth Lakes, California also filed for bankruptcy in this period, but its
population falls below the 15,000 population threshold used to define “urban municipalities” in
this Article. See infra text accompanying notes Error! Bookmark not defined.-Error!
Bookmark not defined..
3
Ian Lovett, A Poorer San Bernardino, and a More Dangerous One, Too, N.Y. TIMES, Jan. 14,
2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/us/crime-rises-in-san-bernardino-after-
bankruptcy.html. The Milwaukee County Sheriff made a similar announcement. See Matt Pearce,
Milwaukee County Sheriff: Don’t Wait for the Police; Arm Yourselves, L.A. TIMES, Jan. 28, 2013,
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/jan/28/nation/la-na-nn-milwaukee-county-sheriff-guns-
20130128.
4
See Crime in the United States 2011: Table 8, U.S. FED. BUREAU INVESTIGATION,
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/offenses-
known-to-law-enforcement/standard-links/city-agency.
5
Alisa Chang, Crime-Ridden Camden to Dump City Police Force, NPR (Dec. 6, 2012),
http://www.npr.org/2012/12/06/166658788/crime-ridden-camden-to-dump-city-police-force.
bankruptcy, the city’s 2011-12 budget explained that in addition to cutting forty-five
percent of all public safety staff, “[a]ll funding for youth, library, arts, elderly, needy,
education, and recreation programs, projects and positions previously provided by the
General Fund were completely eliminated.”
6
Decisions to scale government back in this
way are distinct from contracting out for services; these cities are not purchasing private
substitutes for public services. This is privatization in its purest form—government
service shedding, on the unfunded hope that private or charitable alternatives will arise.
Yet such cuts amplify the longstanding trend of outsourcing service provision to other
public agencies (like counties) and private contractors, because the city government itself
has fewer responsibilities, less authority, and a smaller staff.
Cities undertaking austerity measures also shed their property—public assets like
parks, pools, and government office buildings. In Benton Harbor, Michigan, a city
commission and a state receiver transferred possession of twenty-two acres of the city’s
pristine lakeshore and dunes to a private golf course in exchange for critically needed
annual income, even though the scattered, inland replacement parcels given to the city as
substitute open space required industrial decontamination and the installation of exposure
barriers prior to public use.
7
In Newark, New Jersey, Mayor Cory Booker sold sixteen
city buildings in active public use, including the city’s historic police and fire
headquarters and Newark Symphony Hall, in a deal that plugged most of an eighty
million dollar deficit in the 2010 budget but will ultimately cost the city $125 million to
lease back the buildings over the next twenty years.
8
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6
CITY OF VALLEJO, ADOPTED BUDGET, FISCAL YEAR 2011-2012, at ix (2011),
http://www.ci.vallejo.ca.us/common/pages/DisplayFile.aspx?itemId=29293.
7
The contested lakeshore preserve was dedicated to the public in 1917 in the name of the donors’
deceased daughter, with the following message:
Perhaps some of you do not own a foot of ground, remember then, that this is your park,
it belongs to you. Perhaps some of you have no piano or phonograph, the roll of the water
murmuring in calm, roaring in storm, is your music, your piano and music box... The
beach is yours, the drive is yours, the dunes are yours, all yours. It is not so much a gift
from my wife and myself, it’s a gift from a little child. See to it, that the park is the
children’s.
Klock Family’s Legacy and Gifts to the Community, SAVE JEAN KLOCK PARK,
http://savejeanklockpark.org/KlockLegacy.html (last visited Dec. 9, 2013) (ellipses in original).
For a window into the storm of controversy surrounding the conversion of twenty-two acres of
the park into the golf course, see Jonathan Mahler, Now that the Factories Are Closed, It’s Tee
Time in Benton Harbor, Mich., N.Y. TIMES, Dec. 15, 2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/18/magazine/benton-harbor.html; Robert McClure, Heart of
Michigan Park Sacrificed for Private Golf Course, INVESTIGATE WEST (June 11, 2012),
http://www.invw.org/article/benton-harbor-michigan-1280; Mich. Envtl. Council, Jean Klock
Park’s Dunes Closer to Conversion from Public Ownership to Private Golf Course, MICH.
ENVTL. REPORT, Summer 2008,
http://www.environmentalcouncil.org/priorities/article.php?x=16.
8
Michelle Conlin, Assoc. Press, The Great Government Fire Sale Is On, NPR (May 13, 2011),
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=136268652.
Local government is shrinking in these and other struggling cities. Years, if not
decades, of budget cuts and asset sales have left little beyond a stripped down version of core
service functions like irregular police and fire protection, rudimentary sanitation, and water
supply. School districts continue to manage education (albeit with budget woes of their own),
but the city government itself is no longer pursing a vision beyond public safety in true
emergencies. How low can these cuts go? While laws provide an entitlement to a public
education, and we have long struggled to interpret what constitutes a legally adequate
education, there is little to nothing to indicate what other services the local public sector must
provide. Beyond education, is there some minimum level of public services and public space
needed to achieve neighborhood safety and habitability?
This is a humanitarian question, but it is also a doctrinal challenge. A system of state
and federal laws govern cities that cannot pay their bills, and decisionmakers in this system
(including mayors, governors, federal bankruptcy judges, and creditors) must determine
whether a city’s finances require outside intervention, such as a state receivership or federal
bankruptcy protection, and if so, how to budget for the city going forward. Decisionmakers
must evaluate, in essence, whether a city could cut still more deeply into spending on current
residents to pay off creditors, or whether it is creditors, rather than residents, who have to
bear the next round of cuts. Five
Standards for local public services must necessarily inform this balancing of interests
between creditors and current residents. Creditors such as bondholders, retired public
employees, contractors, and tort plaintiffs have contracts and legal judgments that quantify a
city’s obligations to them. Residents, by contrast, have no such legal instruments with which
to monetize their share of a city’s revenues. They have no concrete legal entitlements to
police and fire protection, no regulations governing emergency response times, no
enforceable right to water and water infrastructure, and no mandate for sanitary services like
solid waste or wastewater disposal. Municipal bankruptcy and receivership laws articulate a
duty to protect “basic public safety” and minimum services “consistent with public health
and safety,” but these laws lack guidance as to what those broad concepts mean as a practical
matter. How long should a caller to 911 wait for a fire truck or an ambulance? Is there some
point when a city’s violent crime rate tells us that the city needs more police officers, if not
gang prevention efforts, afterschool programs for juveniles, and victim support programs? Is
there a specific density at which neighborhoods are “entitled” to access a public water
system? Where to set the floor under public service cuts is a critical legal issue in public
insolvencies, but we are asking decisionmakers to reason through it alone, and we have failed
to pay attention to their answers.
In this fog of opaque, discretionary reasoning, a curious political reality is nonetheless
visible. In the context of municipal insolvency, everyone (liberal, conservative, and
libertarian alike) assumes that residents have some claim to share in a city’s present and
future revenues. When it comes to public fiscal crisis, everyone seems to agree that it is in
the best interests of both creditors and society for a city to continue to provide for the “basic
health and safety” of its residents—if not because they are simply people, then simply
because they are the city’s taxpayers, the ones who can make creditors whole over the long
run without a bailout. Everyone seems to agree, that is, with no public deliberation (let alone
agreement) as to what those minimum levels of public services should be. This Article
frames and advises that early stage deliberation.
My goal is not to assert that residents’ interests are the only ones urgently at stake in a
bankruptcy. “Creditors” is a monolithic word that stands in for thousands of individuals as
well as institutions. Among them are retirees who worked for decades in insolvent cities
plagued by poverty, crime, and, in some cases, demoralizing working conditions. From the
point of view of individual retirees, most pension commitments are not extravagant: the
average annual police pension in Detroit, for example, is $30,000 a year, and general city
workers (like librarians or sanitation workers) receive about $18,000 a year.
9
If these
payments fall through, there may be nothing except poverty programs to fall back on,
because many of these retirees, including most former fire and law enforcement employees,
are excluded by law from Social Security.
10
The 10.8 million people (amounting to 64% of
full-time civilian public employees nationwide) who work full-time for a local government
are stricken with dread as they watch these insolvencies.
11
What they see of the fate of public
pensions, which are a form of deferred compensation, will affect the competitiveness of
public sector jobs and thus the quality of local public services.
The word “creditor” also stands for investors who lent these cities money in good
faith, believing loans to municipalities to be one of the most stable, predictable assets
available in American financial markets. When a city defaults on its obligations to
bondholders, it creates risk in municipal bond markets that may drive up borrowing costs for
other cities in the future. Like it or not, the national economy is exposed to these risks. The
American municipal bond market includes one million outstanding municipal bonds with a
total aggregate principal of more than $3.7 trillion.
12
A cascade of municipalities (beyond the
twenty-eight cities to date) that paid less than the contracted price for debt would reverberate
in the national economy. Individual investors’ exposure to any given municipal insolvency is
likely to be proportionately minor as compared to that city’s retirees’ exposure, but default
on municipal bonds nonetheles distributes individualized losses to investors, both large and
small, most of whom had expressed little taste for (and perhaps tolerance of) risk.
I thus stand on the foundation that creditor perspectives on municipal insolvency are
compelling from both a humanistic perspective and a policy one. I leave the full articulation
of that perspective, however, to other work where it is being widely and ably explored.
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9
Melanie Hicken, Just How Generous Are Detroit’s Pensions?, CNN MONEY (July 23, 2013),
http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/23/retirement/detroit-pensions/.
10
Many states exclude public employees from the Social Security Act. See Lauren Damme, Amid
State Pension Funding Crises, Joining Social Security Becomes an Option, NEW AM. FOUND.
(Aug. 4, 2010),
http://www.newamerica.net/publications/policy/amid_state_pension_funding_crises_joining_soci
al_security_becomes_an_option.
11
See U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT & PAYROLL (2011),
http://www.census.gov/govs/apes/ (calculation based on total civilian full-time employees and
total full-time employees of local governments).
12
U.S. SEC. & EXCH. COMMN, REPORT ON THE MUNICIPAL SECURITIES MARKET, at i (July 31,
2012), http://www.sec.gov/news/studies/2012/munireport073112.pdf.
Instead, I focus here on residents’ position in the struggle toward the “least bad” compromise
that is the nature of insolvency.
This story of residents’ interests must surely begin with a look at who lives in
insolvent cities. Part I provides a comprehensive list of all twenty-eight cities with at least
15,000 residents that have declared bankruptcy or entered a formal state receivership for
municipal insolvency during the five years following September 2008. Tables of data about
these cities lay out their demographics, poverty rates, population change over time, median
home values, crime rates, and other metrics. Capturing the probability that these twenty-eight
cities will soon be joined by others, this Part also presents a list of cities at risk of default on
debt and contracts.
Two commonalities are noticeable immediately in all these cities: their poverty rates
are high and rising, while their populations are shrunken and shrinking. Poverty means less
revenue despite growing expenses—more crime and fires, more children unprepared for
school, and deeper needs for drug treatment, afterschool care, and homeless shelters. We
might assume that population loss would bring down expenses to offset some rising costs
(fewer people cost less to service, right?), but in fact, steep population loss is also
dramatically bad for budgets. Cities that formerly had large populations consumed more
extensive city services in the past, leaving a disproportionate pension and capital debt
overhang. Spatially, such cities’ service territories are as large as they ever were, but the
density of service consumers is down, resulting in costly inefficiencies. And people and
businesses rarely clean up their mess
13
when they exit a city, leaving behind vacant structures
likely to be dilapidated or obsolete, if not sullied by contamination and waste. Those
structures impose costs much deeper than the aesthetics of dereliction. It has been said that in
shrinking cities, demolition may be the major public works of the 21st century.
14
Firemen are
kept busy and endangered: When arson becomes entertainment, a city’s decay is as desperate
as it is ordinary.
15
Whatever the service demands of an impoverished shrinking city might be, in a time
of state and federal deficits and redistributive intolerance, local fiscal crisis means that city
governments must get smaller. What are these cities doing to shrink their governments? After
introducing insolvent cities as well as insolvency law in Part I, including an overview of the
main legal systems that apply to cities at risk of insolvency, Part II looks at the changes
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13
This is how one lifelong Detroiter put it to journalist Charlie LeDuff. See CHARLIE LEDUFF,
DETROIT: AN AMERICAN AUTOPSY 45 (2013).
14
2 WILL ALSOP ET AL., SHRINKING CITIES: INTERVENTIONS 80 (2006) (quoting Paul Virilio:
“[D]uring a crisis period, will the demolition of cities replace the major public works of
traditional politics? If so, it would no longer be possible to distinguish between the nature of
recessions (economic, industrial) and the nature of war.”)
15
In 2011, there were more than 287 fires caused by arson in Flint, Michigan, compared with just
8 in Cambridge, Massachusetts and 7 in Green Bay, Wisconsintwo healthier cities with
comparable (even slightly larger) populations. Detroit saw 957 fires by arson compared with 161
in San Francisco and 143 in Fort Worth, comparably sized cities in terms of population.
Youngstown, Ohio saw 237 fires caused by arson compared with 12 in Palo Alto, California. See
Crime in the United States 2011: Table 8, supra note 4. Comprehensive crime data is not yet
available for 2012.
underway in insolvent cities. I consider these adaptations according to a three-part
framework that describes the main purposes of local government spending, namely: to
provide services (including economic development), to maintain land and equipment for
public use, and to regulate for public safety. Because there is very little that insolvent cities
can do to increase revenues, cities are cutting services, selling assets, and reconsidering their
land-use regulations. This Part explores the nature of the transformative changes underway
along each of these dimensions.
The result of these budget contractions is, as discussed in Part III, a generation of
urban, high-poverty governments focused on little more than the control of fire and violent
crime. These are our new minimal cities. I call them “new” because we have seen minimal
local government before. Wealthy suburbs have experimented with a thin local public sector
focused primarily on land-use and public safety, including police, fire, sanitation, and land-
use control, often via contracts with counties and private contractors. The term “minimal
cities” was coined by political scientist Gary Miller in 1981 to describe such places, where
local government borders and land-use policies are organized to keep property taxes low and
minimize the range of local public services.
16
Beyond the fact that government spending is
limited, however, the new minimal cities identified in this Article look nothing like Miller’s
original minimal cities. Indeed, minimal government in wealthy areas is predicated on
excluding the heterogeneous service needs associated with the residents and uses that inhabit
our new minimal cities. This reflects an implicit bargain, or at least assumption, that residents
who require more public services will live elsewhere. A councilmember of the prosperous,
suburban city of Costa Mesa, California revealed candidly that the best way to keep service
costs low and revenues high is to filter out residents who might commit crimes—for instance,
by catering only to residents with a college degree.
17
In a state where only 30% of people
over 25 years old meet that criterion,
18
where would the non-college educated persons of the
state live? The bankrupt city of San Bernardino (about an hour’s drive from Costa Mesa)
might be one option, because the new minimal cities are not exclusive—cheaper land
provides homes for people with weak buying power, including low-wage workers.
I take up the major normative questions for public law that emerge from the
transformation of poor cities into minimal cities, including the question of essential minimum
services. Joining the officials who are now struggling to figure out how to maintain basic
health and safety, this part works through the question of minimum standards for basic
services by mapping out heuristics for bankruptcy judges, state receivers, state legislators,
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16
See GARY J. MILLER, CITIES BY CONTRACT: THE POLITICS OF MUNICIPAL INCORPORATION 85-
86 (1981).
17
See Tad Friend, Contract City: When a Town’s Budget Fight Turned Deadly, NEW YORKER,
Sept. 5, 2011, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/09/05/110905fa_fact_friend
(“[Councilmember Jim] Righeimer countered that Costa Mesa could reduce crime by expelling its
undesirables and attracting better residents, not by overpaying its cops. Irvine was famously safe,
he said, because ‘eighty-five per cent of the people there have college degrees.’”)
18
2007-2011 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates: Educational Attainment, U.S.
CENSUS BUREAU,
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_11_5YR
_S1501&prodType=table (last visited Dec. 3, 2013).
and the public to use in thinking about the shape of minimum standards. I draw ideas from
social contract theory, economic efficiency, human rights and humanitarian exigency,
property rights, anti-poverty policy, and land use planning to assemble a set of normative
approaches and sources of law that help reason through residents’ claims to city revenues.
Part IV, in conclusion, asks what it means for local governments to get smaller and do
so responsibly. I try to look holistically and pragmatically at how to restructure local
government finance and power in light of fiscal stress and concentrated poverty. If we must
shrink the local public sector, that change should be intentionally created and internally
consistent, not simply government weakness borne of disorganized decay. Like the land-use
strategies of the “shrinking cities movement,” which work to restructure the way land is
organized and used in post-industrial cities coping with substantial population losses, the
concept of shrinking governance that I develop here recognizes that some cities are not on an
inevitable, upward growth trajectory. Shrinking governance shifts focus from the context of
land use and spatial organization to broader governance context.
This Article explores what happens when inclusive and exclusive cities are both
minimal cities, when a government model from suburban life ends up in populous cities with
concentrated poverty. I grieve the conditions in our high-poverty shrinking cities. Yet this
Article is neither an obituary nor a lament. It is forward-facing and functionalist. Local
governments need ways to build, shrink, and, if desired, rebuild government responsibly and
flexibly across economic cycles. They need tools to manage decline that go beyond the
passive, injurious strategies of atrophy and attrition. Instead of extending long-running
research and debate about why cities reach the point when they can’t pay their bills—a
“whodunit” of urban fiscal crisis
19
—cities need work on what to do about it.
The fact that the broader American economy is thawing does not spell an end to the
difficult questions the recession has surfaced. Every city identified in this study has been
struggling with deindustrialization for decades, and their pre-recession fiscal prospects were
dim. Widening inequality among individuals has imprinted itself in space, and these cities lie
within the lowest strata of cities ranked by property values, crime rates, and educational
outcomes. In addition, the housing market crash that began in 2006 means that this particular
recession will continue to impact local budgets for years. For reasons explained herein,
cities’ property tax revenues will lag any recovery of the local housing market by years, if
not decades. This is ominous news for local budgets, because property taxes remain the
single largest source of local revenues.
For purposes of this current piece, I stand in the current moment—along with the
residents and local leaders who live in these cities—to think through the contraction of the
local public sector. When cities face the compound threat of poverty, population loss, and
fiscal crisis, what should they do? The imperative for research on these questions was
captured by author and journalist Charlie LeDuff: “You better look at Detroit, because that’s
what happens when you run out of money.”
20
Needless to say, running out of money is a
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19
I owe the word choice in this disclaimer to MARK BINELLI, DETROIT CITY IS THE PLACE TO BE:
THE AFTERLIFE OF AN AMERICAN METROPOLIS 13 (2012).
20
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central television broadcast Apr. 9, 2013).
phenomenon not limited to cities. It is becoming business as usual for many higher-level
governments, from sequestration in Washington, D.C. to serious deliberation about state
bankruptcy. So too is it the current state of affairs for many school districts today, which lost
300,000 teachers between 2008 and 2011, resulting in changes like this one: in Texas in
2011, no less than 7,000 schools received waivers from the state’s maximum class size limits
for grades K-4.
21
A minimal state may thus come to describe the trajectory of the public
sector, beyond city hall.
The New Minimal Cities explores, as a descriptive matter, the austerity
experiment underway in American cities that have gone broke. It surfaces, as a legal
matter, the latent question of minimum standards in the system of laws governing cities
in crisis. And it investigates, as a normative project, sources of guidance to help fiscal
overseers determine the point beyond which it should be legally, or at least politically,
unacceptable to cut local public services and sell assets. In so doing, it is wrestling
through two challenging issues for legal theory. First is the question of habitability for
neighborhoods: Is habitability a scalable concept that ascends past individual dwellings
and out into the collective space of neighborhoods and cities? And second: What does
urban life require of public life? What are the essential collective services that we will
guarantee regardless of consumer buying power or access to private charity? City
insolvencies offer a smaller setting in which to explore the politically inflamed debate
about what we want from government—even in places where government has fallen to its
knees.
!
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21
EXEC. OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, TEACHER JOBS AT RISK 1 (Oct. 2011); Claudio Sanchez,
Texas Schools Grapple with Big Budget Cuts, NPR (Dec. 22, 2011),
http://www.npr.org/2011/12/22 /144079041/texas-schools-grapple-with-big-budget-cuts. Texas
cut another four billion dollars in state aid for education for fiscal years 2012 and 2013. Outlook
for U.S. Local Governments Remains Negative in 2012, MOODYS INVESTORS SERVICE
(MOODYS) 5 (Feb. 1, 2012) [hereinafter Outlook Remains Negative (Feb. 2012)].